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What's Happening Now
As we’ve talked about on the podcast and have covered here in the newsletter, we’re continuing to see trends of primary market migration to secondary markets. We’ve seen reports of housing rents dropping across major metros (up to even 31% in San Francisco!) and an increase in occupancy and rental activity in secondary or tertiary markets around the country. Be sure to listen to our upcoming podcast episode with Chris Nebenzhal of Yardi Matrix where we discuss these trends and insights provided by their direct data.
We also discussed the trends around consumer spending in a prior newsletter, and the New York Times was kind enough to provide us with more granular insight as to where that spending is going in the article listed at the bottom of this one. The biggest winners have been non-store retailers (you can thank Amazon and other online commerce for this one), building materials and garden supplies (apparently I’m not the only one with an ever growing list of home improvement projects), and finally sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments and books (lots of time, not much else to do). Those sectors are up 22%, 15% and 11% year over year respectively in August with little sign of slowing. As the economic and health challenges continue however, pay attention to how those sectors hold up as well as overall spending in total.
What To Watch
Last week brought us the biggest rise in jobless claims in two months, signaling a potential slowdown in the promising start to our recovery. COVID-19 infections have also jumped by 17% week over week with now 40 states showing an increase in infections, 20 of which have hit a new high in their weekly average case counts. That’s not good.
We knew the fall would usher in either a second wave or extension of what seems to still be the first wave of infections, and we’re trending towards a third peak in daily reported cases. If we have another 17% jump next week, another peak is likely to be hit. Check back here to find out.
At this point, I’ve gotten stimulus fatigue, so this may be the last you hear about it here until a package is approved. Trump is ready to sign a “big, beautiful stimulus” whatever that means, Pelosi doesn’t appear willing to budge on the Democrats’ demands, McConnell claims not to support Trump’s beautiful package, and Mnuchin seems to be stuck playing pinball in the middle. What a mess.
Get out there and vote any which way you can, wash those hands, wear a mask and hang on, because we still have a few turns left in this wild ride of 2020!
- Adam Hooper, CEO
2nd Annual Marketplace Survey
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20192020Rent Payments Collected by May 13th89.8%87.7%Rent Payments Collected by June 13th88.9%89.0%Rent Payments Collected by July 13th90.1%87.6%Rent Payments Collected by August 13th88.9%86.9%Rent Payments Collected by September 13th88.7%86.2%Rent Payments Collected by October 13th89.2%86.8%*Data brought to you by NHMC Rent Payment Tracker
CurrentPrior Week Change10 Year Treasury0.743%-0.036%DOW28,494.20+68.69S&P 5003,483.34+36.51Unemployment Rate7.9%--7 Day Avg. Covid Cases53.6k+7.5k*Metrics as of 11am EST on Friday, October 16
Investors Place Greater Importance on Tenant Quality, Lease Term than Pre-Pandemic
Shoppers are flocking to Ikea and other furniture stores even more than they did last fall, new foot traffic data shows.
The dynamic reflects both a dearth of deals taking place and the fact that distress hasn’t started working through the marketplace yet.
Latest Mortgage-Backed Security Offering Helps Double Deal Total Over Last Year to $8.4 Billion
San Francisco’s sky-high apartment rents are falling fast.
Bay Area staffers move to less-costly locales to work remotely in pandemic, triggering cost-of-living salary reductions and stoking debate
The coronavirus pandemic has pushed many consumers to favor drive-thru lanes as a safer and more convenient option.
Despite the uncertainty and volatility brought on by the pandemic, the capital markets have remained healthier than anticipated.
From Ford to Microsoft, white-collar companies are increasingly extending working from home through next summer.
Attendance is down about 85% on a same-theater basis from last year since reopening began, company says
It's the last major bank with its headquarters on Wall Street and it won't be returning
Groundscrapers have been considered less exalted than their soaring brethren, but their ability to house an entire company on a single floor has made them more desirable in the pandemic.
*If you like this post, be sure to enroll in our free six week course on the fundamentals of commercial real estate investing — RealCrowd University.*
