What's Happening Now
One of the most consistent themes we’ve explored over 2020 is the impact that the current health crisis has had as an accelerant of trends that were already afoot long before we were thinking of mask mandates, social distancing and co-morbidities. We discussed much of this in our podcast episode with Byron Carlock of PwC (please listen here, it’s honestly one of my favorite episodes we’ve put out in the last 4 years).
While we were away from the office last week tucking into our second (fine, maybe third) serving of turkey and stuffing, a few more illustrations of this came into light. First up, Black Friday in store sales tanked, coming in down a reported 52% over 2019 numbers. While this was to be expected, we weren’t sure where the numbers would end up, but that’s what I would consider a shellacking. On the other end, reports are coming in that online sales on that same Black Friday were up more than 21%, proving the case that online sales still have plenty of room to grow as a percentage of brick and mortar sales.
While we’re still waiting on the tabulations from Cyber Monday sales, Adobe Analytics is reporting $10.84 billion in Cyber Monday sales, up from 2019’s $9.4 billion, but at the lower end of forecasts. Online sales racked up a total of nearly $30 billion from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday and are forecast to top $189 billion through Christmas, an impressive 33% year over year increase.
An unexpected, but pretty hilarious, conundrum has emerged as a result, however. There’s nowhere to put all the boxes! With shipping volume expected to rise a similar 30% through the season, facilities are feeling the cardboard crunch as we wrestle with what the heck to do with so. many. boxes.
Over half of young adults are now living with their parents. Jobs aren’t as plentiful as they’ve been historically (there’s an understatement), people are getting married and starting families later, and housing is becoming less and less affordable. Commercial leases are becoming more creative and flexible in structures with evidence pointing towards shorter leases becoming the norm.
Let us know what you’re seeing out there that’s accelerating through this crisis. Have any interesting data points to share? We’re all ears and would love to discuss them here!
What To Watch
We left off our last newsletter with some hopeful news about the COVID-19 vaccines that appear to be just on the horizon. As has been known from the beginning of the pandemic, until we get a handle on the health side of this crisis, we’re far from out of the woods. With numbers skyrocketing all around the country, vaccines can’t come soon enough.
The New York Times put together a tool to help you figure out where you might be in line once the vaccines begin distribution: Find Your Place in the Vaccine Line.
Keep an eye out for a new podcast series with our friends at Mariner Wealth Advisors, soon to be hitting the airwaves where we’re exploring wealth planning topics for every stage of life. We’re kicking off the series with Brian Leitner, Head of Wealth Management where we dug into the basics of estate planning.
As the year comes to an end, please take some time to reach out to those who have maybe slipped too far out of your recent call list. A little connection here and there can make all the difference in the world to some right now. I know I love hearing from our readers of this newsletter and listeners of our podcast, so keep that love flowing as well!
Stay safe out there, wear a mask, wash those hands and have a great holiday season.
- Adam Hooper, CEO
Welcome the newest addition to the RealCrowd Newsletter: Your Questions, Answered. Brought to you by our friends at Mariner Wealth Advisors.
In this series, the team at Mariner will answer your most pressing questions. This week's topic is: Estate Planning.
Insider Tip: Want to learn more about estate planning? Subscribe to the RealCrowd Podcast on your favorite podcast listening platform and you'll be notified when our latest episode on estate planning goes live this Sunday, December 6th.
20192020Rent Payments Collected by May 20th93.0%90.8%Rent Payments Collected by June 20th92.2%92.1%Rent Payments Collected by July 20th93.4%91.3%Rent Payments Collected by August 20th92.1%90.0%Rent Payments Collected by September 20th91.8%90.1%Rent Payments Collected by October 20th92.4%90.6%Rent Payments Collected by November 20th91.9%90.3%*Data brought to you by NHMC Rent Payment Tracker
CurrentPrior Week Change10 Year Treasury0.970%+0.124%DOW30,218.26+307.89S&P 5003,695.50+57.15Unemployment Rate6.7%-0.2%Covid Cases - 7-Day Avg173,452+5,388*Metrics as of Friday, December 4
The former Fed chairman discussed his outlook on the broader economy and what it might mean for commercial real estate demand.
“Shoppers are spreading out their shopping throughout the holiday season because of concerns about social distancing and the pandemic,” said Brian Field.
Low rates could drive volumes higher in 2021.
For the first time in the last 120 years, the majority of young adults (age 18-29) are now living with their parents.
Coming on the heels of the most e-commerce intensive Black Friday yet, Cyber Monday promises to be a big new test of whether physical retailers will succeed at managing surging online demand this holiday season.
The Federal Trade Commission filed an administrative complaint and kicked off a federal lawsuit on Monday to block CoStar’s proposed acquisition of RentPath, which operates Rent.com and several other online rental listing platforms.
With daily package volume expected to increase threefold this holiday season, multifamily managers seek solutions to their lack of storage space.
*If you like this post, be sure to enroll in our free six week course on the fundamentals of commercial real estate investing — RealCrowd University.*