What's Happening Now
So far, the September Slump hasn’t appeared to make its way into the multifamily rent collections space, as illustrated by the NMHC rent tracker. Through September 20th, rent collections are within 170bps from the 2019 numbers, actually tighter than we’ve seen in the last several periods. It’s important to note that while that may seem like a small gap, that represents nearly 200,000 additional households that cannot pay their September rent compared to last year.
Stimulus talks have renewed around a reported $2.4T (yes, T as in another 2.4 trillion dollars) package making its way through the House and a vote possibly as early as next week. It’s unclear what the package would include in its entirety, but direct payments, another round of PPP funding and further unemployment insurance benefits are on the table.
Back in the real estate world, we’re seeing more adaptations to the physical space in response to the current health crisis – a trend that we think will be one of those shifts that’s going to stick around long after we find our way through these challenging times. Office spaces are being upgraded to operate in a contactless manner, HVAC systems are being overhauled with hospital-grade ventilation and buildings are installing all manner of new health and safety conscious gadgets.
A quick reminder to listen back to our podcast with Steve Weikal where we talk about many of those trends and what the future of the office experience may look like.
What To Watch
We were fortunate enough to record a webinar this week with Jeff Krumpelman, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Equities with Mariner Wealth Advisors. We discussed in depth the current state of the market, how election seasons have impacted the equity markets historically and he even brought out his crystal ball to discuss their thoughts on where the markets are headed.
While we’ve been focusing on more broad-based economic numbers in the past few newsletters, an unsettling trend has popped back up in the total number of COVID-19 cases in the US. We’re nearing 7 million cases – by the time you read this we’re likely going to have eclipsed that mark – and over 200,000 dead. 23 states have reported an increase of new cases over the prior week with an average daily new case rate of over 43,000 per day. I’m not a statistician or a virologist, but you don’t have to be either of those to understand that’s not going in a good direction.
As schools and businesses around the country continue to test appropriate limits for distancing, please, for the health of everybody around you, wear a mask. Wash your hands. Limit exposure every way we possibly can. We’re far from through this, but a little bit of compassion for our fellow humans can go a long way at this time.
Stay safe out there and let us know your thoughts on anything you’d like us to discuss in these newsletters!
-Adam Hooper, CEO
20192020Rent Payments Collected by May 20th93.0%90.8%Rent Payments Collected by June 20th92.2%92.2%Rent Payments Collected by July 20th93.4%91.3%Rent Payments Collected by August 20th92.1%90.0%Rent Payments Collected by September 20th91.8%90.1%*Data brought to you by NHMC Rent Payment Tracker
CurrentPrior Week Change10 Year Treasury0.654%-0.043%DOW26,815.44-1,086.54S&P 5003,246.59-110.42Unemployment Rate8.4%--Total US COVID-19 Cases6,982k+294kTotal US COVID-19 Tests107.3m+5.50m*Metrics as of 11am EST on Friday, September 25
2020 Crystal Ball
Your Equities Market Outlook
We were fortunate enough to have Jeff Krumpelman of Mariner Wealth Advisors join us for a special live webinar to discuss his outlook for the public markets during these seemingly uncertain times.
While the global health crisis has put many aspects of daily life on hold, it has also afforded time to pause, reevaluate, and reinvent.
Deutsche Bank AG told its New York City employees that they can continue working from home until mid-2021, in contrast to rival banks that are seeking to return staffers to offices.
Copper door handles, sectional sofas instead of giant couches, and hospital-grade ventilation systems find their way into new buildings.
Nearly 90 percent of New York City bar and restaurant owners couldn’t pay their rent in August, heightening the continued crush the coronavirus shutdown has inflicted on Gotham’s economy.
One startup is treating the dire situation as a moneymaking opportunity for gig workers
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes remained brisk in August as low mortgage rates and demand for space in the suburbs sustained strength in a housing market that’s a bright spot for the economy.
Brookfield Properties is going through a major round of job cuts, CNBC has learned.
The 62-year-old company said it filed for Chapter 11 because of Covid-19.
Top executives at Netflix, BlackRock and other companies weigh in on at-home arrangements, office reopenings and the future of work
Demand for housing, affordability issues fuel industry
*If you like this post, be sure to enroll in our free six week course on the fundamentals of commercial real estate investing — RealCrowd University.*