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What's Happening Now
As we’ve talked about on the podcast and have covered here in the newsletter, we’re continuing to see trends of primary market migration to secondary markets. We’ve seen reports of housing rents dropping across major metros (up to even 31% in San Francisco!) and an increase in occupancy and rental activity in secondary or tertiary markets around the country. Be sure to listen to our upcoming podcast episode with Chris Nebenzhal of Yardi Matrix where we discuss these trends and insights provided by their direct data.
We also discussed the trends around consumer spending in a prior newsletter, and the New York Times was kind enough to provide us with more granular insight as to where that spending is going in the article listed at the bottom of this one. The biggest winners have been non-store retailers (you can thank Amazon and other online commerce for this one), building materials and garden supplies (apparently I’m not the only one with an ever growing list of home improvement projects), and finally sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments and books (lots of time, not much else to do). Those sectors are up 22%, 15% and 11% year over year respectively in August with little sign of slowing. As the economic and health challenges continue however, pay attention to how those sectors hold up as well as overall spending in total.
What To Watch
Last week brought us the biggest rise in jobless claims in two months, signaling a potential slowdown in the promising start to our recovery. COVID-19 infections have also jumped by 17% week over week with now 40 states showing an increase in infections, 20 of which have hit a new high in their weekly average case counts. That’s not good.
We knew the fall would usher in either a second wave or extension of what seems to still be the first wave of infections, and we’re trending towards a third peak in daily reported cases. If we have another 17% jump next week, another peak is likely to be hit. Check back here to find out.
At this point, I’ve gotten stimulus fatigue, so this may be the last you hear about it here until a package is approved. Trump is ready to sign a “big, beautiful stimulus” whatever that means, Pelosi doesn’t appear willing to budge on the Democrats’ demands, McConnell claims not to support Trump’s beautiful package, and Mnuchin seems to be stuck playing pinball in the middle. What a mess.
Get out there and vote any which way you can, wash those hands, wear a mask and hang on, because we still have a few turns left in this wild ride of 2020!
- Adam Hooper, CEO
2nd Annual Marketplace Survey
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20192020Rent Payments Collected by May 20th93.0%90.8%Rent Payments Collected by June 20th92.2%92.2%Rent Payments Collected by July 20th93.4%91.3%Rent Payments Collected by August 20th92.1%90.0%Rent Payments Collected by September 20th91.8%90.1%Rent Payments Collected by October 20th92.4%90.6%*Data brought to you by NHMC Rent Payment Tracker
CurrentPrior Week Change10 Year Treasury0.743%-0.036%DOW28,494.20+68.69S&P 5003,483.34+36.51Unemployment Rate7.9%--7 Day Avg. Covid Cases53.6k+7.5k*Metrics as of 11am EST on Friday, October 23
The absence of outbreaks, if it holds, suggests that the city’s efforts to return children to classrooms could serve as an influential model for the nation.
“Traffic remains high and record-low interest rates are keeping demand strong as the concept of ‘home’ has taken on renewed importance for work, study and other purposes in the Covid era”
It’s not all ‘gloom and doom,’ Real Capital Analytics says.
First-time claims for unemployment benefits totaled 787,000 last week, the lowest since March 14.
About 617,000 women left the workforce in September alone, compared with only 78,000 men, according to government data released Friday
WSJ analysis shows entities tied to Travis Kalanick spent more than $130 million on property acquisitions for CloudKitchens
Firm backs entity led by former Digital Realty CIO Peterson
Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
The official unemployment rate is artificially depressed by excluding people who might be earning only a few dollars a week.
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