RealCrowd’s Thoughts

What Are You Thankful For?
This week my kids had a school assignment to write what they were grateful for heading into Thanksgiving break, and I don’t see why we shouldn’t all do that.

Personally, I’m thankful for the health and support of my incredible family, the opportunity to be living and working in the greatest country in the world, the luxury of being able to share my thoughts (however rambling they may be) with everybody reading this and, more than all, the hope for all of us to work together to emerge stronger, treat others with more civility and create a more unified country on the other side of a relentlessly challenging 2020.

Speaking of Emerging
Here’s your homework for the Thanksgiving holiday:

Take a minute to download Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2021 Report, published by our friends at PwC and ULI.

Read it.

Then read it again.

Then make sure you’re subscribed to our podcast where you’ll get to hear our conversation with Byron Carlock, Partner and US Real Estate Practice Leader at PwC. We’ve been doing the podcast for nearly 4 years now and I genuinely believe this may be one of the most insightful, timely and interesting conversations we’ve had. It should go live on the 28th, so please give it a listen and send us your thoughts on the episode!

What To Watch
As we head into the Thanksgiving holiday, our country is entering the worst spike of the COVID crisis yet, with over 12 million confirmed positive results, over 250,000 deaths, and unfortunately few to no signs of that trend reversing. The great news is Moderna’s vaccine is reportedly 94.5% effective, and Pfizer revised their effectiveness up to more than 95% – this is a very well needed dose of light at the end of what has been a very dark tunnel for too many people. We’ll be watching to see how those companies begin to address the unprecedented (there’s that word again…maybe it should be retired once we turn the clock to 2021) challenge of delivering billions of doses around the world to help stop the spread of this disease.  

Next week we’ll get another update on the NMHC rent payment tracker to see if there has been any change to the recent tightening of rent collections this year relative to last year, but the more telling numbers will be once we get into December to see if there has been any adverse impact from the latest round of closures, shutdowns or restrictions around the country.

For now, though, we’re signing off until after the Thanksgiving holiday. Please do everything you can to limit your exposure and potential exposure to others as we all make sacrifices to slow the spread of COVID.

Wash those hands, eat more food than you should, pick up the phone to call your loved ones, and we’ll be right back here with more news and words in a few weeks.

Happy Thanksgiving!

-Adam Hooper, CEO

Weekly Metrics

20192020
Rent Payments Collected by May 6th81.7%80.2%
Rent Payments Collected by June 6th81.6%80.8%
Rent Payments Collected by July 6th79.7%77.4%
Rent Payments Collected by August 6th81.2%79.3%
Rent Payments Collected by September 6th81.2%76.4%
Rent Payments Collected by October 6th79.479.4
Rent Payments Collected by November 6th81.5%80.4%
*Data brought to you by NHMC Rent Payment Tracker
CurrentPrior Week Change
10 Year Treasury0.829%-0.066%
DOW29,263.48-216.33
S&P 5003,557.54-27.61
Unemployment Rate6.9%
Covid Cases – 7-Day Avg164,850+30,099
*Metrics as of Friday, November 20

Key Articles To Read This Week

Manhattan Office Glut Grows as Landlords Face Virus Boom

New York metro-area has fewest workers returning to offices

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Early Data Show Moderna’s Coronavirus Vaccine Is 94.5% Effective

Moderna is the second company to report preliminary results from a large trial testing a vaccine.

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California, Oregon & Washington Issue Travel Advisories Heading into Holiday Season

The travel advisories caution against non-essential out-of-state travel, ask people to self-quarantine for 14 days after arriving from another state or country and encourage residents to stay local.

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Airbnb files to go public, turned a profit last quarter

The company said it plans to trade under the symbol “ABNB” on the Nasdaq.

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Trump’s S.E.C. Chairman Is Stepping Down

Jay Clayton, who has led the securities regulator since 2017, will leave by the end of the year.

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Simon Property gives up on four struggling malls. Why more could follow

Another $963 million of SPG mall debt at high risk, says KBRA research arm

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Seniors Housing Cap Rates On The Rise

Year-to-date investment in the sector plummeted 48% in the industry.

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U.S. Postal Service Data Suggests Significant Population Decline in San Francisco

The United States Postal Service received 124,131 change of address requests originating in San Francisco zip codes between March and November 2020

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Homebuilder confidence in November shatters record high, as buyers keep fleeing for the suburbs

In November, builder confidence in the construction market for single-family homes soared to its third record high in as many months.

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As Occupancy Dwindles, College Dorms Go Beyond Students

Real estate developers are seeking opportunities to buy student housing from strapped universities and convert them into apartments for white-collar workers.

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*If you like this post, be sure to enroll in our free six week course on the fundamentals of commercial real estate investing — RealCrowd University.*