RealCrowd’s Thoughts

What’s Happening Now
Have we talked about Amazon before? I think they may be on to something…we’re seeing their latest COVID-accelerated plans this week when the FAA approved its fleet of Prime Air drones to ACTUALLY DELIVER PACKAGES WITH DRONES! This also came with the announcement of Whole Foods opening their first “dark store” in Brooklyn, where it is catering to only online orders. Both of these developments were on the horizon pre-COVID, but to continue the theme we’ve touched on in our podcast, the current crisis has certainly sped up the adoption of many similar trends.

On the topic of retail, note the article below calling out the handful of retail businesses that are currently in expansion mode. You’ll notice a mix of discount, service-oriented retail and necessity type, or “essential”, retailers are still growing their business. I know I can speak personally about our local hobby and craft stores seemingly staying quite busy – we need to do something with our time during quarantine!

The markets will soon determine the fate of Airbnb’s IPO success and may be an indicator of how to run a roadshow in a fully virtual format. Rumors had them exploring a direct listing or the currently en vogue SPAC route, but in the end, they’re going forward with a non-traditional, traditional IPO.

What To Watch
We’re on the eve of the August employment numbers coming out (I’m writing this Thursday evening), but they are projected to be mixed in the sense of adding fewer jobs than we saw in July, but positive in the unemployment rate is targeted to dip below 10%. We are still well short of the massive amount of jobs that the crisis has shed, but we’ll take any progress we can get.

There are still no signs of any clear path to further stimulus funds coming from Congress. We’ve been watching with great interest how the economy is going to hold up with the drop of the original Federal unemployment benefits, and September is going to be a very telling month. The NMHC Rent Tracker doesn’t update until the weekend on the 6th, so keep an eye out for how the month is tracking against 2019. You’ll hear about it next week, but we could be in for a shock.

Also keep an eye out for another fascinating podcast conversation with Steve Weikal, a good friend of the show, who joined us from MIT to talk about their World Real Estate Forum event. We covered everything from climate’s impact on the future of real estate, smart buildings and what the offices of the future will look like. Be sure to check the show notes for links to some great resources in there as well.

Labor Day marks the end of summer for many of us on the west coast with kids starting school next week, so enjoy the remainders of sunshine, stay safe out there and we’ll keep on keeping on to get through this one way or another!

-Adam Hooper, CEO

Weekly Metrics

20192020
Rent Payments Collected by April 26th95.9%91.7%
Rent Payments Collected by May 26th94.8%93.3%
Rent Payments Collected by June 26th94.7%94.2%
Rent Payments Collected by July 26th95.3%93.3%
Rent Payments Collected by August 26th94.0%92.1%
*Data brought to you by NHMC Rent Payment Tracker
CurrentPrior Week Change
10 Year Treasury0.700%-0.024%
DOW28,292.73-199.54
S&P 5003,455.06-29.49
Unemployment Rate8.4%-1.8%
Total US COVID-19 Cases6,164k+291k
Total US COVID-19 Tests83,900k+4,710k
*Metrics as of 10am PST on Friday, September 4

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Key Articles To Read This Week

Drone Delivery? Amazon Moves Closer With F.A.A. Approval

The agency said it had issued a certificate clearing the way for the company to use drones to fly packages to its customers’ doorsteps.

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Markets are facing a potential ‘Minsky moment’ collapse, strategist says

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Here Are 14 Retailers That Are Still Expanding in a Pandemic

There’s a renaissance in the categories of food, pet, home, beauty, and arts and crafts, which is creating a proverbial requiem for retail

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Airbnb’s IPO roadshow, now in the Zoom waiting room

Short-term rental giant’s IPO plans bolstered by travel and stock market rebound

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‘Do I Really Need This Much Office Space?’ Pandemic Emptied Buildings, But How Long?

For cities, as well as their tax bases, empty commercial real estate presents a crisis still looming.

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